Publications
Evidence with a purpose.
Reports, policy briefs, press releases, books, and public commentary in one searchable archive.
Respectfully, public officials: taxation should not be like hunting in a zoo
CELIOS’s latest report shows that Indonesia actually has many new “revenue engines” that can be tapped without burdening ordinary people. If implemented properly, these alternative sources could generate up to IDR 524 trillion in additional revenue each year. They range from wealth taxes, carbon taxes, coal production taxes, windfall profit taxes and digital taxes to excise duties on sugary drinks. All have significant potential, provided the government is willing to review ineffective tax incentives.
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CELIOS sends letter to UN over suspected irregularities in Indonesia’s economic growth data
The Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS) has formally sent a letter to the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD) and the UN Statistical Commission, requesting an independent review of Indonesia’s Q2 2025 economic growth data released by Statistics Indonesia (BPS). CELIOS has highlighted a discrepancy between the official figures and real economic indicators. BPS reported growth of 5.12% (yoy), including manufacturing sector growth of 5.68%. However
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The economic impact of the Merah Putih Cooperative
The Indonesian government has officially launched the Merah Putih Village Cooperative, promising it would drive rural economic development. Yet from its design to its launch, Kopdes MP has sparked debate: can it truly empower villages, or will it instead add to the fiscal burden? A CELIOS report titled *The Economic Impact of the Merah Putih Cooperative* finds that most cooperatives are still underperforming; 59.42% report annual revenue below IDR 300 million. The program also gives rise to
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Tax justice awaits Constitutional Court ruling, expert calls for VAT cut to boost economy
Jakarta, July 9, 2025 — The Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS) was formally invited to present expert testimony at the Constitutional Court hearing on the judicial review of Law No. 7 of 2021 on Value-Added Tax (VAT). CELIOS was represented by Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara, Economist and Executive Director, and Media Wahyudi Askar, Director of Public Policy. The hearing focused on the implications of Articles 4 and 7 of the Law on the Harmonization of Tax Regulations (UU HPP), particularly regarding the policy
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Merah-Putih Village Cooperatives: a study on implementation, reform, and policy alternatives
The Merah Putih Village Cooperative (Kopdes MP) program was rolled out under the banner of village empowerment and the promise of strengthening village economies. Yet, this study uncovers another side of the program: potential bureaucratic traps, debt burdens, shrinking fiscal space for villages, and hidden political interests. Based on primary data from multiple regions, the majority of village officials reject the Kopdes MP financing scheme, express concern about corruption, and detect risks of social conflict and electoral political mobilization
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Open letter to the Head of Statistics Indonesia: are we measuring it wrong? Rethinking Indonesia’s poverty standards
Poverty measurement relies on two key indicators. First, we need to calculate how many resources a person has, whether in the form of consumption, income, or assets. Second, we need to determine the poverty line: the minimum threshold of resources required for a decent standard of living. Anyone whose resources fall below this threshold is categorized as poor. It is important to remember that both aspects must be calculated...
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Building a restorative economy in villages: A solution to combat the illusion of self-sufficiency
CELIOS has released a new study on strengthening restorative economies in villages as an alternative to the illusion of self-sufficiency. The study finds that 23,472 villages in Indonesia have high restorative potential, but 95.40% still show little initiative in advancing this agenda. Low awareness and engagement among village governments and communities have worsened environmental and economic problems caused by unchecked natural resource exploitation. The study
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Budget cuts for fiscal justice and people's welfare
CELIOS has released its latest report highlighting a budget efficiency strategy worth IDR 306.7 trillion. If implemented properly, this reallocation could expand social protection programs and improve public welfare. However, CELIOS warns that if the budget is concentrated solely on the Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) program under a universal coverage scheme, the risk of a heavy fiscal burden is unavoidable. As an alternative, CELIOS recommends a more efficient targeted approach, where
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100-day report of the Prabowo-Gibran Cabinet: Performance, challenges, and expectations
The Prabowo-Gibran administration has officially completed its first 100 days in office. CELIOS conducted a cabinet performance evaluation using expert judgment, involving 95 journalists from 44 reputable media outlets. The study found that President Prabowo received a score of 5 out of 10, while Vice President Gibran scored just 3 out of 10. Overall, performance was considered inadequate, with political promises only partially fulfilled and budget management considered poor by more than half of respondents. Some...
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Who is hungry? Who is full?: Risk mitigation in the Free Nutritious Meal Program
The Prabowo-Gibran administration has allocated IDR 71 trillion to implement the Free Nutritious Meal (MBG) Program in 2025. As one of its political promises, the program is certain to be implemented. However, a critical question arises: will its implementation and management truly be effective and sustainable? This report examines the potential risks of the MBG Program, from uneven distribution and questionable food quality to budget inefficiencies
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Vanishing forests, soaring emissions: The Merauke Food Estate accelerates the climate crisis
Amid global calls to reduce emissions, Indonesia could instead double its emissions simply by proceeding with the Merauke food estate megaproject. Clearing 2 million hectares of forest in Merauke could generate an additional 782.45 million tons of CO₂ in carbon emissions, equivalent to a carbon loss of IDR 47.73 trillion. As a result of the Merauke food estate project, Indonesia may fall around 5 to 10 years behind its Net Zero Emission target for
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12% VAT: a severe blow to the finances of Gen Z and the lower-middle class
The increase in the Value Added Tax (VAT) rate to 12% starting January 1, 2025, could have a significant impact on the public. Although stipulated in Law No. 7 of 2021 on the Harmonization of Tax Regulations (HPP), the government actually has the flexibility to set VAT rates between 5–15%. This policy comes amid weakening household economic conditions, with consumption growth of just 4.91% (y-o-y) in Q3 2024 and -0.48% (q-to-q), and deflation for five consecutive
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