Publications
Evidence with a purpose.
Reports, policy briefs, press releases, books, and public commentary in one searchable archive.
Over-the-top industry governance in Indonesia
The Over-the-Top (OTT) industry, widely referred to as digital platforms in Indonesia, has become the backbone of the national digital economy, yet its fiscal contribution still falls far short of the economic value it generates. This study finds that with digital transaction value reaching approximately Rp1,350 trillion, digital tax revenue amounted to only Rp32.32 trillion, producing a digital tax coefficient of 0.27, a figure that reflects a systemic failure to capture digital economic value
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Academic paper on the development of venture capital financing and tax incentives in Indonesia
Indonesia’s venture capital industry holds significant potential to drive innovation, digital economic growth, and job creation. As an alternative source of financing, venture capital plays a critical role for startups and MSMEs that often struggle to access bank financing due to collateral requirements. This role is particularly important given that MSMEs contribute more than 60% of Indonesia’s GDP and account for approximately 97% of total employment, yet only around 30% have access to formal
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Maintaining the sustainability of Indonesia’s online lending ecosystem
The online lending industry (Pindar) has experienced rapid growth in recent years, making a significant contribution to national financial inclusion. Through inclusive regulations, Pindar services have helped individuals and micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) that remain underserved by the formal banking system, while also providing investment opportunities for both individual and institutional lenders. However, along the way, the Pindar industry has faced serious challenges due to th
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Survey: Prabowo–Gibran’s 1-Year Performance Report Card
One Year of Prabowo–Gibran: A Failing Grade from the Public CELIOS has released the results of its One-Year Performance Evaluation of the Prabowo–Gibran Government, assessing program achievements, leadership, budget governance, policy communication, and law enforcement. The evaluation was conducted through a panel survey of 120 journalists from 60 national media outlets and a public survey of 1,338 respondents across Indonesia. The results show failing grades in nearly every sector. Prabowo Subianto scored 3 out of 10, Gibran
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Key stakeholders’ perspectives on job transformation in Indonesia’s public and private sectors
Technological transformations such as automation, robotics, artificial intelligence, and digital platforms have changed how people work and sparked debate about the future of work (The Future of Work). These changes bring both opportunities and risks—from growing demand for a workforce equipped with digital skills to the potential replacement of manual and administrative jobs by machines. In Indonesia, this challenge is becoming increasingly urgent because the current workforce’s capacity is not yet fully…
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Mandatory TPL vehicle insurance: A solution or a new burden for the public?
CELIOS has just released its latest report on the mandatory Third Party Liability (TPL) motor vehicle insurance policy. The study finds potential negative impacts on the national economy and the public, especially lower- and middle-income groups. If implemented, the policy risks reducing public income by up to IDR 20.7 trillion, lowering GDP by IDR 21 trillion, and reducing employment by 3.4 million people. Small businesses, such as those in the culinary sector, are also projected to
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Indonesia digital economy outlook 2025
Rapid digital transformation has reshaped Indonesia’s economic landscape, creating new business models, job opportunities, and room for innovation. The CELIOS study “Indonesia Digital Economy Outlook 2025” provides projections for the development of the digital economy while highlighting key challenges. Nailul Huda, CELIOS Director of Economics, says, “Unfortunately, in 2025, the e-commerce sector is projected to grow by only 0.5% to IDR 471 trillion due to declining purchasing power and the potential increase in
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Side effects of formalizing gig workers in Indonesia
Indonesia’s gig economy exhibits unique characteristics compared to developed countries, where the shift from informal work toward semi-formal or formal employment is still at an early stage. Although digitalization has introduced elements of formality, such as recording workers’ activities in systems or apps, challenges remain around social protection and job security for gig workers. The flexibility offered by this sector creates new opportunities, but also poses
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Amartha x CELIOS: financial technology media toolkit
This toolkit provides a comprehensive overview of Indonesia’s fintech landscape, with a focus on P2P lending. The first section discusses the industry’s current state, regulatory framework, consumer protection, transparency, growth projections, technological innovation, and collaboration to strengthen the fintech ecosystem. The second section highlights the contribution of P2P lending fintech to Indonesia’s digital economy, analyzing market growth, its positive economic impact, and measures to opt…
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CELIOS x GudangAda: landscape, opportunities, and challenges of B2B FMCG business in Indonesia during the digital transformation acceleration period
The study “B2B FMCG Marketplace Indonesia Outlook 2023,” conducted by CELIOS in collaboration with GudangAda, analyzes the state of B2B Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) business in Indonesia amid global economic uncertainty. Its main focus is strengthening the resilience of MSMEs, which are key contributors to employment and GDP. The research shows that B2B e-commerce transactions continue to grow, with the potential to increase by 25% in 2023. B2B FMCG platforms help MSMEs, particularly traditional...
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CELIOS x PLUANG: the impact of multi-asset applications on retail investor growth
CELIOS, in collaboration with Pluang, released the report “The Impact of Multi-Asset Applications on Retail Investor Growth.” The study comes amid an era of digital disruption and the rapid growth of retail investors in Indonesia, particularly since the COVID-19 pandemic. By May 2022, the number of retail investors in the capital market had reached 8.86 million, with the majority from the millennial generation. Multi-asset applications allow people to manage and diversify various asset classes, including stocks, mutual funds, and
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