Research area
Macro Economy
Macro economy desk dedicated to bring indepth analysis of current and emerging economic issues to help addresing alternative policy.
Burning Forests, Burning the Economy: The Impact of Forest and Land Fires on Economic and Health Costs
The total economic and health costs of forest and land fires in Indonesia in 2026 could reach Rp359.58 trillion–Rp565.03 trillion. Economic losses from the loss of physical assets and economic activity amount to Rp340.38 trillion, or 2.69 percent of GDP, while health costs associated with acute respiratory infections (ARI) are estimated at Rp19.20 trillion to Rp224.65 trillion.
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Prabowo’s two years in office: weighing the cost of Prabowonomics
An opinion article by Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara, published in Indonesia at Melbourne.
Read publicationA two-year roller coaster with the free meals program
An opinion article by Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara, published in The Jakarta Post.
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The hidden cost of fire: economic and health impacts of forest and land fires in Indonesia 2026
CELIOS has released its latest research on the economic and health costs of forest and land fires (Karhutla) in Indonesia throughout January–August 2026. ➖ The total economic and health costs of forest and land fires in Indonesia during January–August 2026 are estimated at Rp39.29–123.1 trillion. The upper-end estimate of Rp123.1 trillion is equivalent to 49.1% of Central Kalimantan’s projected regional GDP in 2026. This estimate does not yet account for a scenario in which forest and land fire
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Meals: (Not) Nutritious, (Not) Free
When Meals Are (Not) Nutritious and (Not) Free The Free Nutritious Meal Program (MBG) is touted as the flagship program of the Prabowo-Gibran administration. The government, through Bappenas, identifies 4 main objectives for MBG. These include meeting the nutritional needs of vulnerable groups. The program is also intended to improve the quality of education. MBG is expected to stimulate the local economy. The program is also claimed to be capable of creating jobs. President Prabowo Subianto has repeatedly said that MBG is the provis...
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Economic losses caused by the Sumatra floods
Celios Study Findings: Economic Losses Caused by the Sumatra Floods 🗣️The ecological disaster in Sumatra in November 2025 is projected to have caused economic losses of Rp68.67 trillion. This figure includes damage to residents’ homes, lost household income, damage to road and bridge infrastructure, and lost agricultural production from land inundated by floods and landslides. 🗣️Specifically, Aceh Province is projected to suffer losses of Rp2.2 trillion. North Sumatra is projected
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Survey: One-year performance scorecard for Prabowo–Gibran
One Year of Prabowo–Gibran: A Red Report Card from the Public CELIOS has released the results of its One-Year Performance Evaluation of the Prabowo–Gibran administration, assessing program achievements, leadership, budget governance, policy communication, and law enforcement. The evaluation was conducted through a panel survey of 120 journalists from 60 national media outlets and a public survey of 1,338 respondents across Indonesia. The results show a red report card in almost every sector. Prabowo Subianto scored 3 out of 10, Gibran
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Press Release: Resetting Indonesia’s Economy
The current economic situation in recent weeks reflects the accumulation of persistent problems: inequality, unfair taxation, inefficient spending, and the government’s ballooning debt. Real and implementable solutions are urgently needed to address the challenges faced by Indonesia’s middle- and lower-income groups. CELIOS calls for a Reset of Indonesia’s Economy through eight key policy demands aimed at restoring public trust, strengthening the state budget (APBN), and protecting household purchasing power.
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CELIOS sends letter to UN over suspected irregularities in Indonesia’s economic growth data
The Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS) has formally submitted a letter to the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD) and the UN Statistical Commission, requesting an independent review of Indonesia’s Q2 2025 economic growth data released by Statistics Indonesia (BPS). CELIOS has highlighted discrepancies between the official figures and real economic indicators. BPS reported growth of 5.12% year on year, including 5.68% growth in the manufacturing sector. However
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The Economic Impact of the Merah Putih Cooperative
The Indonesian government has officially launched the Merah Putih Village Cooperative as a promised driver of rural economic development. However, from its design through its launch, Kopdes MP has sparked debate: can it truly empower villages, or will it instead add to the fiscal burden? A CELIOS report titled *The Economic Impact of the Merah Putih Cooperative* finds that most cooperatives are still underperforming; 59.42% report annual revenue below IDR 300 million. The program also gives rise
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Expert testimony by CELIOS in the formal review process of Law Number 1 of 2025 on State-Owned Enterprises, which regulates the Sovereign Wealth Fund Danantara
On July 16, 2025, CELIOS was officially invited by the Constitutional Court to provide expert testimony in the judicial review of Law No. 1 of 2025 on the Third Amendment to the State-Owned Enterprises Law. Representing CELIOS, Executive Director Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara presented an economic perspective that questioned the transparency of the legislative process and highlighted systemic risks arising from the law’s implementation. In his testimony, Bhima stressed
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Tax justice awaits Constitutional Court ruling, expert calls for VAT cut to boost economy
Jakarta, July 9, 2025 — The Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS) was formally invited to present expert testimony at the Constitutional Court hearing on the judicial review of Law No. 7 of 2021 on Value-Added Tax (VAT). CELIOS was represented by Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara, Economist and Executive Director, and Media Wahyudi Askar, Director of Public Policy. The hearing focused on the implications of Articles 4 and 7 of the Law on the Harmonization of Tax Regulations (UU HPP), particularly regarding the policy
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Merah-Putih Village Cooperatives: a study on implementation, reform, and policy alternatives
The Merah Putih Village Cooperative (Kopdes MP) program was rolled out under the banner of village empowerment and the promise of strengthening village economies. However, this study’s findings reveal another side of the program: potential bureaucratic traps, debt burdens, shrinking village fiscal space, and hidden political interests. Based on primary data from various regions, a majority of village officials reject the Kopdes MP financing scheme, worry about corruption, and sense risks of social conflict and mob
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Key stakeholders’ perspectives on job transformation in Indonesia’s public and private sectors
Technological transformations such as automation, robotics, artificial intelligence, and digital platforms have changed how people work and sparked debate about the Future of Work. These changes bring both opportunities and risks—from growing demand for a workforce equipped with digital skills to the potential replacement of manual and administrative jobs by machines. In Indonesia, this challenge is becoming increasingly urgent because the current workforce’s capacity has not yet fully
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Assessing the economic losses of delaying the appointment of civil servant candidates
The nine-month delay in the appointment of 250,407 Civil Servant Candidates (CPNS)—originally scheduled for March 2025 but now postponed until October 2025 or even March 2026—has created economic uncertainty and widespread financial losses. The delay was prompted by shifting priorities under the Prabowo administration, budget efficiency measures totaling IDR306 trillion, and deficit pressures stemming from debt and previous infrastructure spending. The economic impact is substantial: IDR6.76 trillion in potential income
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100-day report of the Prabowo-Gibran Cabinet: Performance, challenges, and expectations
Several
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Valuation of restorative economic impact: A pathway to overcoming Indonesia's economic stalemate
The CELIOS report titled “Calculating the Restorative Economic Impact: A Way Out of Economic Stalemate” highlights the potential of a restorative economy to increase Indonesia’s economic output tenfold over the next 25 years, from IDR 203.26 trillion to IDR 2,208.7 trillion. A restorative economy, which combines ecosystem recovery with inclusive growth, focuses on agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, which support more than 85% of Indonesia’s population. The study’s findings show an increase of 1
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Free Nutritious Meals: Economic impacts and the consequences of the national budget deficit
The Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) program is a priority of the Prabowo-Gibran administration, with a target of reaching 82 million beneficiaries, including schoolchildren, toddlers, and pregnant women. However, CELIOS warns that allocating IDR 71 trillion from the education budget to MBG could strain state finances and narrow fiscal space for other priority programs. Nailul Huda, CELIOS Director of Economics, stressed, “If the MBG program uses mandatory education spending, the quality of education n
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Palm oil land moratorium: A positive impulse for Indonesia's economy
Indonesia, as the world’s largest palm oil producer with plantations spanning 16.8 million hectares, faces a dilemma between industrial expansion and environmental sustainability. Although palm oil exports contributed USD 37.76 billion in 2022 and USD 29.54 billion in 2023, the biodiesel development plan from B40 to B50 initiated by President Prabowo Subianto’s administration requires further expansion of palm oil plantations, raising concerns about deforestation and the loss of food-producing land. The Palm Oil Moratorium under Presidential Instruction No. 8 of
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Scenario of the 2025 minimum wage increase and its impact on the national economy
The issue of how to formulate the minimum wage following the Constitutional Court’s ruling on the Job Creation Law has prompted speculation about the size of the 2025 increase. Bhima Yudhistira, Executive Director of CELIOS, emphasized, “In the past 10 years, the government has never used the minimum wage as a counter-cyclical policy. Yet a better minimum wage would boost household consumption and benefit businesses as well as overall economic growth.” CELIOS simulations show that an increase in the minimum wage
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Indonesia inequality report 2024: Private jets for the rich, bicycles for the poor
A recent CELIOS study titled “Indonesia Inequality Report 2024: Private Jets for the Rich, Bicycles for the Poor” finds that inequality in Indonesia has reached a point where the wealth of the country’s 50 richest people equals the wealth of 50 million Indonesians. Within the next six years, Indonesia will have its first quadrillionaire in history. Meanwhile, it will take 133 years to eradicate poverty in Indonesia. In addition to the finding a
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A New Economic Paradigm: Fiscal Support for a Restorative Economy
Jakarta, July 2024— CELIOS released a report on the fiscal needs for implementing restorative economic initiatives in Indonesia. The study highlights the need for substantial government investment to support environmental recovery and social justice. The report, “The New Economic Paradigm: Fiscal Support for a Restorative Economy,” estimates that Indonesia will need IDR 892.15 trillion by 2045 to effectively implement restorative strategies. The report identifies
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TAPERA for Wh(o)at? Analyzing the pros and cons of the People's Housing Savings Program
The issue of the People’s Housing Savings Program (Tapera) surfaced after the issuance of Government Regulation No. 21 of 2024, which requires workers earning above the regional minimum wage to contribute 2.5% of their salary each month. In its Policy Brief “TAPERA for Wh(o)at? Analyzing the Pros and Cons of the People's Housing Savings Program,” CELIOS highlights the policy’s economic impact. CELIOS Digital Economy Director Nailul Huda stated, “The Tapera policy causes GDP to decline by IDR 1.21 trillion, business profits to fall by IDR 1.03 trillion, and
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CELIOS x WALHI: Geothermal Energy: Economic and Environmental Impacts
Jakarta, 5 March 2024 – The development of Geothermal Power Plants (PLTPs) in Indonesia, although promoted as part of the energy transition, has social and economic impacts on local communities. Bhima Yudhistira, Executive Director of CELIOS, emphasized, “The capital-intensive nature of geothermal projects tends not to generate significant multiplier effects for the local economy. Instead, local communities often see geothermal development as an obstacle to productivity in agriculture and
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The positive effects of the green economy transition on economic indicators
Jakarta, December 19, 2023— The transition to a green economy is expected to have a significant impact on Indonesia, contributing up to IDR 2,943 trillion to GDP over the next 10 years and creating up to 19.4 million new jobs. A study by CELIOS and Greenpeace Indonesia shows that this transformation could also increase workers’ income by up to IDR 902.2 trillion and reduce inequality between provinces. CELIOS Executive Director Bhima Yudhistira emphasized the role of the government and private sector in supporting
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