Research area
Just Energy Transition
Just energy transition desk provides analysis of pathways to achieve Net Zero Emission goals without damaging indigenous community livelihood, biodiversity, and challenging false solution.
2026 China-Indonesia Energy Transition Cooperation: Progress, Prospects, and Recommendations
CELIOS's annual review finds that between October 2025 and October 2026, China-Indonesia energy transition cooperation moved from signing agreements to building factories while negotiations intensified over nickel, ownership, and finance. The report records 34 agreements, meetings, and project milestones, assesses progress in battery, electric vehicle, nickel, and solar cooperation, and sets out ten recommendations for a more transparent, predictable, and results-based partnership.
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Indonesia’s food and fuel security drive invites scrutiny in Papua
Indonesia plans to use sugarcane from Merauke as a feedstock for bioethanol as it seeks to reduce fuel imports. The high-cost project has advanced with limited public oversight while posing risks to forests, Indigenous communities, public finances, and Indonesia’s climate credibility ahead of COP31. An opinion article by Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara and Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat, published in Asia Times.
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Indonesia Should Bring a Just Forest Agenda to COP31
As Indonesia heads to COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye, it must address the environmental risks of B50 biodiesel expansion, protect forests and peatlands, recognise Indigenous land rights, and ensure local communities receive direct funding and at least 20% of forest and carbon revenues. Indonesia's green economy must not only keep forests standing but also ensure that the people protecting them share in its benefits. An opinion article by Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat and Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara, published in Jakarta Globe.
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Sulawesi has exceeded its environmental carrying capacity as extractive industries continue to expand
Jakarta, 15 September 2026 — A new study by the Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS) finds that Sulawesi has exceeded its environmental carrying and assimilative capacity. Based on a multidimensional assessment of air, water, land, social conditions, and policy controls, the island recorded an aggregate score of 4.5 out of 5, placing it in the “beyond limits” category. The report, Beyond Limits: The Failure of Environmental Carrying and Assimilative Capacity (D3TLH) to Control the Expans
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Calamity Disguised as Potential: The Dangers and Illusion of Prosperity of Geothermal Projects
Revised edition of a zine on the social and environmental dangers and the illusion of prosperity associated with geothermal projects in Indonesia.
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High potential, low prosperity: Structural and regulatory gaps in rural renewable energy transition
Indonesia’s renewable energy transition is leaving rural communities behind. A new study by CELIOS finds that despite Indonesia’s enormous renewable energy potential, structural inequality, weak regulation, and extractive economic dependence continue to hinder equitable energy access in villages. The report documents several alarming trends between 2021–2024. Household solar adoption declined by 26.3%, biogas utilization dropped by 19.8%, and community-scale micro-hydro development fell by 10.1%
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Indonesia’snickel: What is seen and what remains buried
Indonesia sits at the center of one of the most consequential resource stories of our time. As the world's largest nickel producer, it holds a pivotal position in the supply chains feeding the electric vehicle boom — a position its government has worked deliberately to strengthen through downstream processing mandates and a rapid buildout of smelting infrastructure. Nickel exports have climbed sharply over the past five years, and on paper, the country looks like a rare winner in the global clea
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Leveraging the London Metal Exchange: Turning Indonesia’s minerals into premium low carbon assets
As Indonesia solidifies its position as the epicenter of the global critical minerals landscape, new challenges have emerged in ensuring that our mineral wealth translates into fair, resilient, and sustainable economic value. While downstreaming policies have successfully increased domestic refining capacity, the market volatility experienced throughout 2025 and early 2026—marked by production halts in several RKEF lines—underscores the urgent need for a more robust global pricing and diversific
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Why food estates are not the answer for food and energy security
A new CELIOS report reveals that the Merauke food estate and bioethanol program could cost more than US$11 billion, while posing major risks to forests, local communities, and public governance. The study argues that Indonesia should prioritize cleaner, more cost-effective pathways to strengthen long-term food and energy resilience. CELIOS-Food Estate Not The Answer April 2026 Download
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Village Energy Transition Readiness Index 2026
CELIOS, in collaboration with Greenpeace, has released the 2026 Village Energy Transition Readiness Index report, which shows that the readiness of villages in driving the clean energy transition in Indonesia continues to face structural challenges and significant regional disparities. This study measures the readiness of villages and urban wards ( kelurahan ) for the energy transition through three main dimensions: clean energy initiatives, economic resilience, and village governance capacity
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Indonesia–US trade agreement challenged in court, civil society coalition warns of risks to economic sovereignty
A civil society coalition consisting of CELIOS, the Alliance of Independent Journalists (AJI), Indonesia for Global Justice (IGJ), Solidaritas Perempuan, and supported by WALHI Nasional and Trend Asia has officially filed a lawsuit for Unlawful Government Act (Onrechtmatige Overheidsdaad) against the President of the Republic of Indonesia at the Jakarta Administrative Court (PTUN) on March 11, 2026. The lawsuit challenges the President’s decision to sign the Indonesia–United States Reciprocal T
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CELIOS Amicus Curiae – Administrative Court of Kupang
The Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS) has submitted an amicus curiae in Case Number 26/G/TF/PTUN.KPG on behalf of Agustinus Tuju, an Indigenous community leader from Poco Leok, in a case concerning opposition to the geothermal development project against the Regent of Manggarai before the Administrative Court of Kupang. This legal opinion is presented to strengthen the protection of constitutional rights, particularly the freedom of peaceful expression and the rights of Indigenous communities
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The New Development Bank and the road to better safeguards for communities and a just transition
The New Development Bank (NDB) plays an increasingly strategic role in financing infrastructure and climate-related projects across developing countries, positioning itself as a key actor in advancing sustainable development and a just energy transition. As NDB’s portfolio expands, this report underscores the growing importance of strong social and environmental safeguard frameworks to protect affected communities and ecosystems. Drawing on comparative policy analysis and institutional assessmen
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CELIOS expert testimony at the Administrative Court: PLN’s 2025–2034 RUPTL burdens state finances
CELIOS Executive Director Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara gave expert testimony in Case Number 286/G/2025/PTUN.JKT concerning the review of PLN’s 2025–2034 RUPTL. In his testimony, Bhima highlighted the large share of private power producers (IPPs) in the RUPTL, accounting for 73% of total investment, and its impact on state finances, APBN subsidies and compensation, electricity supply reliability, and people’s purchasing power. Data shows that PLN’s payments to IPPs—including for electricity that goes unused—have reached hundreds of trillions of rupiah, which could potentially be classified as state losses.
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Urgently calling for a new model of business, human rights, and environmental assessment
Sustainability instruments in Indonesia—such as PROPER, PRISMA, Norma 100, TKBI, and LKPM—remain fragmented and voluntary, lack field verification, and do not disclose results to the public. As a result, companies can engage in partial compliance without addressing real human rights and environmental harms on the ground. The CELIOS & PUSHAM UII study reveals that: 4 out of 5 national instruments are voluntary and unverified. Major conflicts in the LQ45 energy sector include environmental pollution, land disputes, community intimidation, road blockades, and heavy-equipment accidents.
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Economic losses caused by the Sumatra floods
Celios Study Findings: Economic Losses Caused by the Sumatra Floods 🗣️The ecological disaster in Sumatra in November 2025 is projected to have caused economic losses of Rp68.67 trillion. This figure includes damage to residents’ homes, lost household income, damage to road and bridge infrastructure, and lost agricultural production from land inundated by floods and landslides. 🗣️Specifically, Aceh Province is projected to suffer losses of Rp2.2 trillion. North Sumatra is projected
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Toxic twenty: unmasking Indonesia’s most toxic coal fired power plants
Jakarta, November 4th, 2025 - Indonesia risks 156,000 premature deaths and USD 109 billion (IDR 1.813 quadrillion) in economic losses from the cumulative operation of the country’s 20 most dangerous coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) through 2050, according to a new report released today by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), Celios, and Trend Asia. The report, titled “ Toxic Twenty: Unmasking Indonesia’s Most Toxic Coal Fired Power Plants, ” highlights the severe health, envir
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What are the potential impacts of climate change on population health in Indonesia?
The latest CELIOS study, “Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Health of Indonesia’s Population,” reveals that climate change is likely to increase a wide range of health problems, including heat-related illnesses, respiratory disorders, heightened risks of malaria and dengue fever, as well as cardiovascular diseases and mental health issues. Our findings show that rising temperatures, ecosystem disruptions, and more frequent natural disasters can expand disease distribution, reduce produ
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Second nationally determined contribution (SNDC): in pursuit of 8% economic growth, environmental protection and vulnerable groups are overlooked
Jakarta, October 24, 2025 — The government has just released the draft of the Second Nationally Determined Contribution (SNDC), which is planned to be submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) ahead of COP 30 this November in Brazil. During a public consultation session held by the Ministry of Environment and Forestry, it was acknowledged that the delay in submitting the SNDC document was due to difficulties in aligning targets across sectors. In fact, unde
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Survey: One-year performance scorecard for Prabowo–Gibran
One Year of Prabowo–Gibran: A Red Report Card from the Public CELIOS has released the results of its One-Year Performance Evaluation of the Prabowo–Gibran administration, assessing program achievements, leadership, budget governance, policy communication, and law enforcement. The evaluation was conducted through a panel survey of 120 journalists from 60 national media outlets and a public survey of 1,338 respondents across Indonesia. The results show a red report card in almost every sector. Prabowo Subianto scored 3 out of 10, Gibran
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IEU-CEPA: transition toward an anti-deforestation and low-carbon regime
The signing of the Indonesia–European Union Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IEU-CEPA) on September 23, 2025, marks a strategic milestone for Indonesia’s non-oil and gas exports to access the European market starting in 2027. However, beyond its economic prospects, this agreement also signifies the beginning of a new phase of regulatory and governance reform. Under the agreement, Indonesia must align its domestic policies with two major EU frameworks: the EU Deforestation Regulation
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The economic diversification potential of North Maluku Province
Since 2020, North Maluku has become the focus of the Indonesian government’s ambitions in nickel mining and downstream processing. The impact has been significant: on paper, the province has recorded double-digit economic growth since 2021. Even in 2022 and 2023, amid the pressures of COVID-19, growth still exceeded 20%. Although this looks impressive, excessive reliance on nickel poses serious risks to the local economy and the environment. Nickel is a finite commodity, with prices and demand...
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The economic diversification potential of Konawe: moving beyond the extractive development model
Although the nickel boom has brought an extraordinary surge in economic growth to Southeast Sulawesi—particularly Konawe Regency—it is by no means a recipe for sustainable development. Complete dependence on nickel leaves Konawe’s future vulnerable on multiple fronts. Nickel is a non-renewable resource, and its price is heavily influenced by volatility in international markets. Furthermore, overexploitation can cause serious environmental damage,
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Morowali’s economic diversification potential for non-mining products
The RPJPN 2025–2045 has emphasized the importance of promoting sustainable economic growth at both the provincial and regency levels. For Morowali, this mandate underscores the urgent need to move away from an economy that is overly dependent on nickel mining and processing. The regency needs a more resilient economic model—one that can secure long-term prosperity while safeguarding the environment. In this report, CELIOS designs several economic diversification strategies…
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Plan to modify World Heritage forest boundaries for geothermal: a new threat to forests, communities, and Indonesia’s reputation
Jakarta, 22 September 2025 – The government, through the Ministry of Forestry, plans to modify the boundary of the Tropical Rainforest Heritage of Sumatra (TRHS) via UNESCO, in order to build a 5 GW Geothermal Power Plant (PLTP) in Suoh and Sekincau, West Lampung. This move marks a major setback in tropical forest conservation efforts and undermines Indonesia’s environmental diplomacy reputation, particularly in the lead-up to COP30 in Brazil. UNESCO World Heritage Potential The 2.5 million-he
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Behind the green curtain: unpacking greenwashing in Indonesia’s China-backed investments
China often markets “green” investment as a branding strategy under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Yet behind the sustainability slogans lies a question: what narratives are actually being promoted in Indonesia? This report examines the background and context of Chinese investment, explains the practice of greenwashing, and highlights the negative impacts that have emerged. By examining the narratives, key actors, and policy gaps, the report seeks to reveal the realities behind the green labels that are often…
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Indonesian banks disburse USD7.2 billion for coal industry
The #BersihkanBankmu coalition released its latest report, titled “Funding the Climate Crisis: How Banks in Indonesia Support Coal Financing,” highlighting the (still) strong financial support for coal companies. The report reveals that the five largest national banks accounted for USD5.6 billion of the total USD7.2 billion in financing. Bank Mandiri was the largest financier with USD3.2 billion, followed by Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI) with USD809.5 million, Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI) USD
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Indonesia’s accession to the OECD: Recommendations for improving the Indonesian regulatory and institutional framework in the energy and environmental sectors
Indonesia’s efforts to join the OECD offer a strategic opportunity to align environmental and energy governance with international standards. This collaborative report by CELIOS and ICEL highlights several regulatory gaps that hinder a just and sustainable transition, particularly in environmental assessments, energy pricing, transparency, governance, and climate finance. The report’s findings show that the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) process remains exclusionary…
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Assessment of the moratorium on mining licenses in Java
Java, the most densely populated island in Indonesia, has long borne the brunt of unchecked extractive activities. Mining, particularly for cement production, has pushed the island beyond its ecological carrying capacity—eroding landscapes, threatening hydrological systems, and undermining the livelihoods of surrounding communities. What is often called “development” is instead driving an ecological crisis with long-term economic and social consequences. Through this assessment, CELIOS underscores
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Critique of the 2025 energy transition roadmap: the fallacy of techno-financial logic behind coal-fired power plant (PLTU) closures
This report critically examines Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation No. 10 of 2025 on the Energy Transition Roadmap for the Electricity Sector, particularly its provisions on ending the operation of coal-fired power plants (PLTUs). It identifies a number of normative, methodological, and institutional weaknesses that instead hinder the acceleration of the energy transition. The roadmap was developed with minimal public participation and low transparency, while positioning PLN as the dominant actor in studies on the early retirement of PLTUs—a situation that
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The triple impact of gas power plant expansion: economic growth, public health, and environmental consequences
Indonesia’s energy transition policy is still considered insufficiently ambitious because it leaves room for various false solutions, such as CCS/CCUS technology, palm oil-based bioenergy, and the expansion of gas and nuclear power. Greenpeace and CELIOS released a report highlighting the dangers of using fossil gas as a transition energy source, which could instead hinder progress toward clean energy targets. The report’s findings show that expanding fossil gas-fired power plants will cause major losses for e
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How much do consumers lose from adulterated Pertamax? A recap of consumer complaints and consumer loss modeling
CELIOS and LBH Jakarta have released a report titled “How Much Do Consumers Lose from Adulterated Pertamax? A Recap of Consumer Complaints and Consumer Loss Modeling,” revealing the scale of the losses suffered by the public due to suspected fuel adulteration. The study captures consumers’ real-life experiences while also modeling the resulting economic impacts. The findings show that the losses are not only borne by individuals but also hit the national economy. These findings revea
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The prospects of decarbonizing Indonesia’s steel industry: How green steel helps shape industrial competitiveness
The global steel industry is accelerating its transition toward net-zero emissions, with roadmaps emphasizing the use of green hydrogen and Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) technology. However, Indonesia’s steel sector faces significant challenges, as carbon emissions rose sharply between 2019 and 2020 and are projected to reach 24.9 million tons by 2030. Although companies such as Krakatau Steel and Posco Korea have begun decarbonization efforts, their expansion plans—such as the “Cilegon 10 Million Ton Stee
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Looking towards MENA (Middle East and North Africa): Alternative investment partners for Indonesia’s energy transition
CELIOS launched the Indonesia-MENA Desk alongside its study, “Looking Towards MENA: Alternative Investment Partners for Indonesia’s Energy Transition.” The report emphasizes the importance of seeking new financing partners amid shifting global geopolitics. Donald Trump’s pro-fossil fuel agenda, which could weaken international climate cooperation, and China’s dominance in financing coal-fired power plants in Indonesia highlight the risks of relying solely on longstanding partners in the clean energy transition. S
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Mining false solutions: The controversy of JETP in the Ijen Geothermal Project
In the implementation of the JETP program, the Blawan-Ijen geothermal power plant project in East Java secured substantial funding, including USD 126 million from the DFC. However, field studies show that the project’s implementation falls far short of the “just” principles promised in the JETP documents. There is a discrepancy between the Environmental Impact Assessment (AMDAL) and practices on the ground, from consultations held only through the Village Heads Forum without directly involving residents, to community complaints that went unanswered by the company. Instead of
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100-day report of the Prabowo-Gibran Cabinet: Performance, challenges, and expectations
Several
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Nexus of ambition, value addition, and governance in the bauxite copper downstreaming in Indonesia
After the nickel era, the government is now focusing on downstreaming copper and bauxite as strategic commodities for the battery ecosystem and energy transition. In its latest report, CELIOS underscores the importance of policy consistency, particularly regarding the plan to halt raw ore exports in 2025. The prospect of reopening permits for concentrate exports must not weaken the direction of downstreaming. Although smelter construction faces challenges, assessments of incidents such as the fire in Gresik must not
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Debt swap scheme can support the energy transition in the Prabowo era
President Prabowo’s commitment at the G20 Summit in Brazil to end dependence on coal-fired power plants within the next 15 years needs to be followed up without delay. The estimated cost of retiring coal-fired power plants through 2050 is Rp444 trillion, while the government’s fiscal space is increasingly constrained, with interest and debt payments next year expected to absorb 45% of the state budget. Against this backdrop, CELIOS is proposing an innovative debt swap scheme to enable coal plant retirements to be
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CELIOS’ recommendations for Indonesia’s Second Nationally Determined Contributions (SNDC): Looking ahead to tackling the climate crisis
The climate crisis has had serious impacts on economic sovereignty, public safety, and the environment. Indonesia is expected to take concrete steps in mitigation and adaptation, using the formulation of its SNDC (Second Nationally Determined Contributions) as an opportunity for a strategic course correction, acknowledging past delays in responding and moving forward with greater focus. The government should consider postponing permits for new coal-fired power plants, particularly in industrial zones, so that the...
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CELIOS x 350 Indonesia: opportunities and challenges in community-based renewable energy financing
Jakarta, May 20, 2024–350.org and CELIOS launched the study “Economic Impact and Financing Opportunities for Community-Based Renewable Energy,” which shows that community-based renewable energy could contribute IDR 10,529 trillion to GDP over 25 years. Bhima Yudhistira, Executive Director of CELIOS, said, “The positive impact of community-based renewable energy can also reduce poverty by more than 16 million people. There are employment opportunities amounting to
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The economic impact of early retirement of coal-fired power plants
A study by Yayasan Indonesia CERAH and CELIOS found that early retirement of coal-fired power plants (PLTUs), replaced by renewable energy plants, is more economically beneficial. Bhima Yudhistira, CELIOS Executive Director, stated, “The scenario of retiring coal-fired power plants alongside the development of renewable energy plants could contribute IDR 82.6 trillion to the economy, create 639,000 jobs, and reduce poverty by 153,755 people nationwide.” Agung Budiono from CERAH added, “Between early retirement
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Indonesia's energy transition readiness index
Readiness across Indonesian regions to shift from high-carbon energy to renewable energy remains uneven. A CELIOS study, “Indonesia Energy Transition Readiness Index,” found that “90% of provinces in Indonesia are not adequately prepared, with around 70% (24 provinces) at medium readiness and 20% (7 provinces) at low readiness,” said Media Wahyudi Askar, CELIOS Director of Public Policy. The readiness of each region is influenced by per capita energy consumption, women’s involvement, and the level
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The positive effects of the green economy transition on economic indicators
Jakarta, December 19, 2023— The transition to a green economy is expected to have a significant impact on Indonesia, contributing up to IDR 2,943 trillion to GDP over the next 10 years and creating up to 19.4 million new jobs. A study by CELIOS and Greenpeace Indonesia shows that this transformation could also increase workers’ income by up to IDR 902.2 trillion and reduce inequality between provinces. CELIOS Executive Director Bhima Yudhistira emphasized the role of the government and private sector in supporting
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CSO responses to the JETP CIPP
The CSO coalition considers the JETP CIPP document half-hearted in its support for a just energy transition. CELIOS Executive Director Bhima Yudhistira emphasized, “Some of the coal-fired power plants slated for early retirement, namely PLTU Cirebon-1, are already part of the ETM scheme. So it seems there is no intention to actually shut down coal-fired power plants. The JETP is unclear: the initial plan to retire coal-fired power plants is simply not being pursued seriously.” Leonard Simanjuntak from Greenpeace added that the document…
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CSO white paper on the JETP plan
Jakarta, 26 October 2023— Civil society launched a white paper in response to the planned JETP investment document in Indonesia, highlighting issues of justice, governance, and implementation. CELIOS Executive Director Bhima Yudhistira emphasized, “The point is to create more fiscal space and shift incentives that have so far benefited extractive and fossil fuel companies toward supporting the energy transition.” Bhima also stressed the importance of regional governments’ role in a just energy transition: “Local govern...
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National survey: energy transition expectations for the 2024 presidential candidates
This study explored Indonesian public perceptions of the climate crisis, the role of government, presidential candidates’ commitments, and the role of mass media. The findings show that 81% of the public agree that the government should declare a climate emergency, with the highest support in urban areas and among people aged 15–34. However, 60% believe the government has yet to formulate policies to prevent the climate crisis. The online media outlets most active in covering environmental issues are CNN Indonesia and Seputar Indonesia (
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Impact of coal-fired power plant closures on local communities: workers, SMEs, and regional revenue
Jakarta, 18 July 2023— CELIOS and Yayasan Indonesia CERAH highlighted the importance of local government involvement in the launch of JETP. Bhima Yudhistira, CELIOS Director, stated, “For example, around 4,666 direct workers, both permanent and non-permanent, will be affected by the closure of coal-fired power plants in Langkat, Cilacap, and Probolinggo. This does not yet include indirect workers, namely MSME operators around the power plant sites, as well as workers at coal source locations.” Muhamm
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Public opinion survey on the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP)
The USD 20 billion Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) funding commitment faces challenges due to low public awareness. A CELIOS survey of 1,245 respondents found that “public understanding of JETP is still very low and tends to be concentrated in certain regions and economic classes,” said Bhima Yudhistira. JETP is better understood in Bali, while communities affected by coal-fired power plants (PLTU) should be able to participate actively before the launch of the Comprehensive Inv
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Critical points in energy transition financing: JETP and ETM
Indonesia secured significant energy transition funding commitments at the G20 Summit in Bali, including the JETP and ETM schemes, worth USD 20 billion and USD 250-300 million, respectively. CELIOS highlighted several technical issues, such as project transparency, public involvement, and lessons from South Africa’s JETP experience. “The first six months of the JETP are crucial. Public participation, especially by those affected by the energy transition, must be a government priority,” the CELIOS report stated. Early retirement program for coal-fired power plants
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