Publications
Evidence with a purpose.
Reports, policy briefs, press releases, books, and public commentaries in one searchable archive.
Free Nutritious Meals: Economic impacts and the consequences of the national budget deficit
The Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) program is a priority of the Prabowo-Gibran administration, with a target of reaching 82 million beneficiaries, including schoolchildren, toddlers, and pregnant women. However, CELIOS warns that allocating IDR 71 trillion from the education budget to MBG could strain state finances and narrow fiscal space for other priority programs. Nailul Huda, CELIOS Director of Economics, stressed, “If the MBG program uses mandatory education spending, the quality of education n
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Palm oil land moratorium: A positive impulse for Indonesia's economy
Indonesia, as the world’s largest palm oil producer with plantations spanning 16.8 million hectares, faces a dilemma between industrial expansion and environmental sustainability. Although palm oil exports contributed USD 37.76 billion in 2022 and USD 29.54 billion in 2023, the biodiesel development plan from B40 to B50 initiated by President Prabowo Subianto’s administration requires further expansion of palm oil plantations, raising concerns about deforestation and the loss of food-producing land. The Palm Oil Moratorium under Presidential Instruction No. 8 of
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China-Indonesia survey 2024: Insights into Indonesian public perceptions of China
CELIOS released the “China-Indonesia Survey 2024” to understand public perceptions of relations between Indonesia and China. Zulfikar Rakhmat, Director of CELIOS’s China-Indonesia Desk, emphasized that “Indonesia’s efforts to strengthen its role on the global stage are commendable, but it is equally important to manage international partnerships carefully, especially in addressing the risks of excessive dependence and potential political influence.” The survey shows that 58% of respondents want the government to increase mutually beneficial economic cooperation while safeguarding national sovereignty.
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Energy transition and deforestation: How regulations facilitate the escalation of agrarian conflicts
The Indonesian government continues to promote biomass development as an alternative to fossil fuels, including through Energy Plantation Forests (HTE), which are planned for inclusion in PLN’s RUPTL and the New and Renewable Energy Bill (RUU EBET). Bhima Yudhistira, Executive Director of CELIOS, noted that “the substantial demand for wood pellets for PLTU co-firing is not only for domestic use but also for export, including to Japan. The largest buyers of Indonesian wood pellets are Japan and South Korea, at 10 million tons and 64 million tons respectively.”
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Scenario of the 2025 minimum wage increase and its impact on the national economy
The issue of how to formulate the minimum wage following the Constitutional Court’s ruling on the Job Creation Law has prompted speculation about the size of the 2025 increase. Bhima Yudhistira, Executive Director of CELIOS, emphasized, “In the past 10 years, the government has never used the minimum wage as a counter-cyclical policy. Yet a better minimum wage would boost household consumption and benefit businesses as well as overall economic growth.” CELIOS simulations show that an increase in the minimum wage
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Redefining China’s “debt-trap”: An Indonesian perspective
Over the past decade, Indonesia-China relations have reached their peak since the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013. Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat, Director of the China-Indonesia Desk at CELIOS, emphasized that the debt-trap issue is not only about financial matters. “When a country feels unable to make independent policy decisions for fear of upsetting its cooperation partner, that can also be considered being trapped in debt. In the context of Indonesia and China, for example, we
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The dilemma of phasing out coal-fired power plants: Losses or gains for the country?
JAKARTA, 5 November 2024 – The government’s energy transition commitment has passed from Indonesia’s 7th President, Joko Widodo (Jokowi), to President Prabowo Subianto, with the hope that Indonesia will remain committed to the energy transition, particularly accelerating the retirement of coal-fired power plants (PLTU). As part of Indonesia’s energy transition, the government needs to recognize the benefits of early PLTU retirement as a step toward achieving net-zero emissions by 2060 or sooner. Pe
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Press release: CELIOS’ response to Indonesia’s BRICS membership in 2024
Jakarta, October 26, 2024 — Less than a week after the inauguration of the president and the new cabinet, Indonesia’s government has drawn public attention, both at home and abroad, following Foreign Minister Sugiono’s statement at the BRICS Plus Summit in Kazan on October 24, 2024. Sugiono submitted a letter of expression of interest to join the alliance of five major countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS). Indonesia has now officially applied for membership
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CELIOS' response to the Prabowo-Gibran 'oversized cabinet' plan: Fiscal burden, lack of cabinet substance
President-elect Prabowo Subianto has summoned candidates for ministerial, deputy ministerial, and agency head positions, but CELIOS analysis shows that most candidates are politicians (55.6%) and supporters of Prabowo-Gibran (72%). Only 15.7% are technocratic professionals, while women account for just 9.3%. CELIOS researcher Galau D. Muhammad emphasized, “Appointing more deputy ministers means higher state spending. All these obligations
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CELIOS’ recommendations for Indonesia’s Second Nationally Determined Contributions (SNDC): Looking ahead to tackling the climate crisis
The climate crisis has had serious impacts on economic sovereignty, public safety, and the environment. Indonesia is expected to take concrete steps in mitigation and adaptation, using the formulation of its SNDC (Second Nationally Determined Contributions) as an opportunity for a strategic course correction, acknowledging past delays in responding and moving forward with greater focus. The government should consider postponing permits for new coal-fired power plants, particularly in industrial zones, so that the...
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Who benefits from ocean sand exports? Economic and environmental impacts of ocean sand regulations
Jakarta, October 2, 2024—The government’s decision to ease restrictions on sea sand exports through Government Regulation No. 26/2023 and Ministerial Decree KP No. 16/2024 has drawn sharp criticism from academics, environmental activists, and coastal communities. The policy is considered harmful to marine ecosystems, coral reefs, and fishers’ livelihoods. CELIOS Digital Economy Director Nailul Huda stated, “The simulations found a negative impact on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of IDR 1.22 trillion, and people’s incomes will decline by as much as
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Strengthening Legal Protection for Environmental Defenders
Opinion article by Muhammad Saleh, published in Detik.
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