Publications
Evidence with a purpose.
Reports, policy briefs, press releases, books, and public commentary in one searchable archive.
12% VAT: a severe blow to the finances of Gen Z and the lower-middle class
The increase in the Value Added Tax (VAT) rate to 12% starting January 1, 2025, could have a significant impact on the public. Although stipulated in Law No. 7 of 2021 on the Harmonization of Tax Regulations (HPP), the government actually has the flexibility to set VAT rates between 5–15%. This policy comes amid weakening household economic conditions, with consumption growth of just 4.91% (y-o-y) in Q3 2024 and -0.48% (q-to-q), and deflation for five consecutive
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Scenario of the 2025 minimum wage increase and its impact on the national economy
Issues surrounding the formulation of the Minimum Wage following the Constitutional Court’s ruling on the Job Creation Law have sparked speculation about the size of the 2025 wage increase. Bhima Yudhistira, Executive Director of CELIOS, emphasized, “In the past 10 years, the government has never used the minimum wage as a counter-cyclical policy. Yet a better minimum wage would boost household consumption and benefit businesses as well as overall economic growth.” CELIOS simulations show that an increase in the minimum wage
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CELIOS' response to the Prabowo-Gibran 'oversized cabinet' plan: fiscal burden, lack of substance in the cabinet
President-elect Prabowo Subianto has summoned candidates for minister, deputy minister, and agency head positions to fill strategic posts, but CELIOS analysis shows that most candidates are politicians (55.6%) and supporters of Prabowo-Gibran (72%). Only 15.7% are technocratic professionals, while women account for just 9.3%. CELIOS researcher Galau D. Muhammad emphasized, “Appointing more deputy ministers means higher state spending. All these burdens…”
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Indonesia inequality report 2024: private jets for the rich, bicycles for the poor
A recent CELIOS study titled “Indonesia Inequality Report 2024: Private Jets for the Rich, Bicycles for the Poor” finds that inequality in Indonesia has reached a point where the wealth of the country’s 50 richest people is equal to that of 50 million Indonesians. Within the next six years, Indonesia will have its first quadrillionaire in history. At the same time, it will take 133 years to eradicate poverty in Indonesia. In addition to the finding of a
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Challenges in economic recovery under the Prabowo-Gibran administration: 10 fiscal pitfalls from Jokowi's legacy
Yogyakarta, August 2024 – CELIOS released the report “10 Fiscal Gaps from the Joko Widodo Administration,” which identifies ten major fiscal challenges Indonesia faced during President Joko Widodo’s two terms. The report highlights stagnant economic growth at 5.1%, a widening budget deficit from IDR 226.69 trillion to IDR 616.19 trillion, and a debt-to-GDP ratio rising from 24.7% to 39.13%. Media Wahyudi Askar, CELIOS’ Director of Public Policy, stressed, “Fiscal polic
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A new economic paradigm: fiscal support for a restorative economy
Jakarta, July 2024— CELIOS released a report on the fiscal needs for implementing restorative economy initiatives in Indonesia. The study emphasizes the need for substantial government investment to support environmental recovery and social justice. The report “The New Economic Paradigm: Fiscal Support for a Restorative Economy” estimates that Indonesia will need Rp892.15 trillion by 2045 to effectively implement restorative strategies. The report identifies
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Evaluation of Jokowi’s fiscal legacy for the next government
CELIOS published the report "Jokowi's Fiscal Legacy: Notes for Future Government" in February 2023 to assess Indonesia’s fiscal condition during President Joko Widodo’s two terms in office and the implications of fiscal reform for the future economy. The report highlights several key issues: the tax ratio has declined since 2015, tax incentives such as Tax Holidays could reduce state revenue, external debt rose 44% from 2014–2021, and a larger share of the budget was allocated to debt repayment than to productive investment. State-owned enterprise-based infrastructure megaprojects are also considered likely to strain the state budget in the future.
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Sustainable national natural gas policy
Jakarta, January 18, 2022—The Government’s plan to expand industrial gas price incentives needs improvement. CELIOS Executive Director Bhima Yudhistira explained, “The state’s losses could be substantial: state revenue from upstream oil and gas in 2020 reached only USD 460 million. This means the state could suffer potential losses while gas prices are experiencing a windfall.” Bhima added, “The distribution of special gas price incentives should be treated the same as the distribution of gas subsidies in…
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