Research area
Fiscal Justice
Fiscal justice team provides credible research of solution to avoid debt trap, shrinking fiscal spaces and alternatives fiscal policy to address wealth inequalities.
Village Cooperatives Sue at the Constitutional Court
The Head of Prawatan Village, Sajogyo Institute, and Koperasi Edukarya Negeri Lestari have filed a judicial review petition with the Constitutional Court concerning implementation of the Merah Putih Village/Urban-Village Cooperative program. The petitioners challenge the formation of cooperatives through government directives, the use of Village Funds for a central government program, and the risk of financing costs being borne by villages.
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Disaster Volunteerism Squeezed by Budgetary Responsibilities
Opinion article by Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara, published in Bloomberg Businessweek Indonesia.
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Are people being “poisoned” by the government? Tens of thousands affected by suspected MBG-related food poisoning, yet the crisis is treated as trivial
Key Findings from CELIOS Memo #MBG Series 6 The 43,838 victims are not isolated incidents—they reflect a systemic failure. In the first three days of September alone, more than 1,908 people were affected in incidents linked to at least six different SPPG kitchens. MBG-related food poisoning has caused up to IDR 40.38 billion in socioeconomic losses, including medical expenses, productivity losses, and out-of-pocket costs. Nearly IDR 12 billion of these costs must be borne directly by the victims’ families.
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Indonesia’s education system battered by MBG
CELIOS’ Latest Study on MBG — 18 August 2026 MBG is still planned to continue in 2027, with an allocation of Rp240 trillion, equivalent to 29.3% of the national education budget. The government is failing to respond to the warning signs, learn from past failures, and fulfill its responsibility. Since Sudaryono was appointed, at least 1,557 people have reportedly been affected by suspected food poisoning linked to MBG. Yet instead of addressing the root causes and ensuring accountability, thes
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Memo on village cooperatives series
Memo Kopdes Series #2 – CELIOS Kopdes MP in Turmoil (Again): From “Divine Inspiration” to Public Policy, from (Claiming to Be) a Cooperative to Competing with MSMEs Key Findings: Kopdes MP Lacks Policy Urgency Indonesia already has 139,203 cooperatives, yet the government has chosen to establish 83,259 new Village Cooperatives (Kopdes MP) instead of strengthening existing ones. Fiscal Risks Shifted to the State Budget The program's financing could reach IDR 240 trillion (up to IDR 3 billio
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CELIOS expert opinion on the judicial review of the Teachers and Lecturers Law
Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara, Executive Director of CELIOS, has submitted a written expert opinion in his capacity as an economist for the judicial review of Law No. 14 of 2005 on Teachers and Lecturers before the Constitutional Court (Case No. 272/PUU-XXIII/2025). The expert opinion provides an economic perspective on the issues raised in the petition, contributing evidence-based analysis to support the Constitutional Court's review of the challenged provisions. Ket Ahli Bhima Yudhistira-MK UU
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Policy note: Multiple shocks to local food prices: rupiah depreciation and non-subsidized fuel price increases
Indonesia is facing multiple simultaneous shocks—including the depreciation of the rupiah, rising global oil prices, adjustments to non-subsidized fuel prices, and the expansion of the Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) program through SPPG—which together are likely to intensify pressure on food inflation. The depreciation of the rupiah is associated with higher food prices, particularly for import-sensitive commodities such as garlic, beef, and soybeans. The relationship typically begins to emerge ar
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Free Nutritious Meals Program (MBG), rupiah exchange rate, and food price dynamics: Is the expansion of SPPG associated with local price pressures?
A recent study by the Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS) examines the relationship between the expansion of Nutrition Fulfillment Service Units (SPPG), fluctuations in the rupiah exchange rate, and food price dynamics across Indonesian districts and municipalities. Key findings include: Every additional 10 SPPG units is associated with an average increase of approximately 0.08% in overall food prices at the district/city level. Every additional 10 SPPG units is associated with a 0.12
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Indonesia Economic Inequality 2026
The report Indonesia Economic Inequality 2026: Republic of Oligarchy shows a clear reality: inequality in Indonesia is getting worse and harder to justify. The wealth of the 50 richest people is equal to that of 55 million Indonesians. At the same time, workers’ wages barely increase while top wealth keeps growing rapidly. This report explains why. It’s not just the market it’s how the economic and political system works. Wealth is concentrated in extractive sectors like mining and energy, and
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Constitutional lawsuit on the governance of the Free Nutritious Meal Program in the state budget
Key Points of the Constitutional Challenge to the Governance of the Free Nutritious Meal Program in the State Budget We have submitted a Judicial Review of the State Budget Law (APBN Law) to examine the governance of the Free Nutritious Meal Program (MBG), which raises several serious concerns regarding the management of public finances. The main objections raised in this petition include the following: Abuse of authority in the management of public funds, as the MBG program was established w
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Meals: (Not) Nutritious, (Not) Free
When Meals Are (Not) Nutritious and (Not) Free The Free Nutritious Meal Program (MBG) is touted as the flagship program of the Prabowo-Gibran administration. The government, through Bappenas, identifies 4 main objectives for MBG. These include meeting the nutritional needs of vulnerable groups. The program is also intended to improve the quality of education. MBG is expected to stimulate the local economy. The program is also claimed to be capable of creating jobs. President Prabowo Subianto has repeatedly said that MBG is the provis...
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Low wages, high hopes: inside Indonesia’s fashion supply chains
CELIOS’ new report “Low Wages, High Hopes” sheds light on the harsh realities behind Indonesia’s textile, garment, shoe, and leather industries. Drawing on DecentWorkCheck survey data from 2017–2024, the study finds widespread short-term contracts, wage theft, and declining social protection—trends worsened by deregulation under the Job Creation Law. The report calls for stronger labor enforcement and greater accountability from global fashion brands to ensure decent work and fair pay across I
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Survey: One-year performance scorecard for Prabowo–Gibran
One Year of Prabowo–Gibran: A Red Report Card from the Public CELIOS has released the results of its One-Year Performance Evaluation of the Prabowo–Gibran administration, assessing program achievements, leadership, budget governance, policy communication, and law enforcement. The evaluation was conducted through a panel survey of 120 journalists from 60 national media outlets and a public survey of 1,338 respondents across Indonesia. The results show a red report card in almost every sector. Prabowo Subianto scored 3 out of 10, Gibran
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Press Release: Resetting Indonesia’s Economy
The current economic situation in recent weeks reflects the accumulation of persistent problems: inequality, unfair taxation, inefficient spending, and the government’s ballooning debt. Real and implementable solutions are urgently needed to address the challenges faced by Indonesia’s middle- and lower-income groups. CELIOS calls for a Reset of Indonesia’s Economy through eight key policy demands aimed at restoring public trust, strengthening the state budget (APBN), and protecting household purchasing power.
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Respectfully, public officials: taxation should not be like hunting in a zoo.
This latest CELIOS report shows that Indonesia actually has many new “revenue engines” that can be tapped without burdening ordinary people. If implemented properly, these alternative sources could generate up to IDR 524 trillion in additional revenue each year—from a wealth tax, carbon tax, coal production tax, windfall profits tax, digital tax, and excise on sugar-sweetened beverages. All have significant potential, provided ineffective tax incentives are subject to a courageous review.
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CELIOS sends letter to UN over suspected irregularities in Indonesia’s economic growth data
The Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS) has formally submitted a letter to the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD) and the UN Statistical Commission, requesting an independent review of Indonesia’s Q2 2025 economic growth data released by Statistics Indonesia (BPS). CELIOS has highlighted discrepancies between the official figures and real economic indicators. BPS reported growth of 5.12% year on year, including 5.68% growth in the manufacturing sector. However
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The Economic Impact of the Merah Putih Cooperative
The Indonesian government has officially launched the Merah Putih Village Cooperative as a promised driver of rural economic development. However, from its design through its launch, Kopdes MP has sparked debate: can it truly empower villages, or will it instead add to the fiscal burden? A CELIOS report titled *The Economic Impact of the Merah Putih Cooperative* finds that most cooperatives are still underperforming; 59.42% report annual revenue below IDR 300 million. The program also gives rise
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Tax justice awaits Constitutional Court ruling, expert calls for VAT cut to boost economy
Jakarta, July 9, 2025 — The Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS) was formally invited to present expert testimony at the Constitutional Court hearing on the judicial review of Law No. 7 of 2021 on Value-Added Tax (VAT). CELIOS was represented by Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara, Economist and Executive Director, and Media Wahyudi Askar, Director of Public Policy. The hearing focused on the implications of Articles 4 and 7 of the Law on the Harmonization of Tax Regulations (UU HPP), particularly regarding the policy
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Merah-Putih Village Cooperatives: a study on implementation, reform, and policy alternatives
The Merah Putih Village Cooperative (Kopdes MP) program was rolled out under the banner of village empowerment and the promise of strengthening village economies. However, this study’s findings reveal another side of the program: potential bureaucratic traps, debt burdens, shrinking village fiscal space, and hidden political interests. Based on primary data from various regions, a majority of village officials reject the Kopdes MP financing scheme, worry about corruption, and sense risks of social conflict and mob
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Open letter to the Head of Statistics Indonesia: are we measuring it wrong? Rethinking Indonesia’s poverty standards
Poverty measurement relies on two key indicators. First, we must assess how many resources a person has, whether in the form of consumption, income, or assets. Second, we need to determine the poverty line, the minimum threshold of resources required for a decent standard of living. Anyone whose resources fall below this threshold is categorized as poor. It is important to remember that both aspects must be cal...
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Building a restorative economy in villages: A solution to combat the illusion of self-sufficiency
CELIOS has released its latest study on strengthening restorative economies in villages as an alternative to the illusion of self-sufficiency. The study finds that 23,472 villages in Indonesia have high restorative potential, but 95.40% of them still show little initiative in advancing this agenda. Low awareness and limited engagement by village governments and communities have worsened environmental and economic problems caused by unchecked natural resource exploitation. The study
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Budget cuts for fiscal justice and people's welfare
CELIOS has released its latest report highlighting a budget efficiency strategy worth IDR 306.7 trillion. If implemented properly, this reallocation could expand social protection programs and improve public welfare. However, CELIOS warns that if the budget is focused solely on the Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) Program under a universal coverage scheme, the risk of a heavy fiscal burden cannot be avoided. As an alternative, CELIOS recommends a more efficient targeted approach, where
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100-day report of the Prabowo-Gibran Cabinet: Performance, challenges, and expectations
Several
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Who is hungry? Who is full?: Risk mitigation in the Free Nutritious Meal Program
The Prabowo-Gibran administration has allocated a budget of IDR 71 trillion to implement the Free Nutritious Meal (MBG) Program in 2025. As one of its political promises, the program is certain to be implemented. However, a critical question arises: will the program’s implementation and management truly be effective and sustainable? This report examines the potential risks of the MBG Program, from uneven distribution and questionable food quality to budget inefficiencies
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Vanishing forests, soaring emissions: The Merauke Food Estate accelerates the climate crisis
Amid global calls to reduce emissions, Indonesia could instead double its emissions simply by proceeding with the megaproyect food estate in Merauke. Clearing 2 million hectares of forest in Merauke could trigger an additional 782.45 million tons of CO₂ emissions, equivalent to a carbon loss of IDR 47.73 trillion. As a result of the Merauke food estate project, Indonesia may fall around 5 to 10 years behind its Net Zero Emission target by the year
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12% VAT: a severe blow to the finances of Gen Z and the lower-middle class
The increase in the Value Added Tax (VAT) rate to 12% starting January 1, 2025, could have a significant impact on the public. Although stipulated in Law No. 7 of 2021 on the Harmonization of Tax Regulations (HPP), the government actually has the flexibility to set VAT rates between 5–15%. This policy comes amid weakening household economic conditions, with consumption growth of just 4.91% (y-o-y) in Q3 2024 and -0.48% (q-to-q), and deflation for five consecutive
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Scenario of the 2025 minimum wage increase and its impact on the national economy
The issue of how to formulate the minimum wage following the Constitutional Court’s ruling on the Job Creation Law has prompted speculation about the size of the 2025 increase. Bhima Yudhistira, Executive Director of CELIOS, emphasized, “In the past 10 years, the government has never used the minimum wage as a counter-cyclical policy. Yet a better minimum wage would boost household consumption and benefit businesses as well as overall economic growth.” CELIOS simulations show that an increase in the minimum wage
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CELIOS' response to the Prabowo-Gibran 'oversized cabinet' plan: Fiscal burden, lack of cabinet substance
President-elect Prabowo Subianto has summoned candidates for ministerial, deputy ministerial, and agency head positions, but CELIOS analysis shows that most candidates are politicians (55.6%) and supporters of Prabowo-Gibran (72%). Only 15.7% are technocratic professionals, while women account for just 9.3%. CELIOS researcher Galau D. Muhammad emphasized, “Appointing more deputy ministers means higher state spending. All these obligations
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Indonesia inequality report 2024: Private jets for the rich, bicycles for the poor
A recent CELIOS study titled “Indonesia Inequality Report 2024: Private Jets for the Rich, Bicycles for the Poor” finds that inequality in Indonesia has reached a point where the wealth of the country’s 50 richest people equals the wealth of 50 million Indonesians. Within the next six years, Indonesia will have its first quadrillionaire in history. Meanwhile, it will take 133 years to eradicate poverty in Indonesia. In addition to the finding a
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Challenges in economic recovery under the Prabowo-Gibran administration: 10 fiscal pitfalls from Jokowi's legacy
Yogyakarta, August 2024 – CELIOS released the report “10 Fiscal Gaps from the Joko Widodo Administration,” which identifies ten major fiscal challenges Indonesia faced during President Joko Widodo’s two terms. The report highlights stagnant economic growth at 5.1%, a widening budget deficit from IDR 226.69 trillion to IDR 616.19 trillion, and a debt-to-GDP ratio rising from 24.7% to 39.13%. Media Wahyudi Askar, CELIOS’ Director of Public Policy, stressed, “Fiscal polic
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A New Economic Paradigm: Fiscal Support for a Restorative Economy
Jakarta, July 2024— CELIOS released a report on the fiscal needs for implementing restorative economic initiatives in Indonesia. The study highlights the need for substantial government investment to support environmental recovery and social justice. The report, “The New Economic Paradigm: Fiscal Support for a Restorative Economy,” estimates that Indonesia will need IDR 892.15 trillion by 2045 to effectively implement restorative strategies. The report identifies
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Evaluation of Jokowi’s Fiscal Legacy for the Future Government
CELIOS published the report “Jokowi’s Fiscal Legacy: Notes for Future Government” in February 2023 to assess Indonesia’s fiscal condition over President Joko Widodo’s two terms and the implications of fiscal reform for the future economy. The report highlights several key issues: the tax ratio has declined since 2015, tax incentives such as Tax Holidays could reduce state revenue, external debt rose by 44% from 2014–2021, and budget allocations have been used more to repay d—
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Sustainable national natural gas policy
Jakarta, January 18, 2022—The Government’s plan to expand industrial gas price incentives needs to be improved. CELIOS Executive Director Bhima Yudhistira explained, “The state’s losses could be substantial: state revenue from upstream oil and gas in 2020 reached only USD 460 million. This means the state could lose out while gas prices are enjoying a windfall.” Bhima added, “The distribution of special gas price incentives should be treated the same as the distribution of gas subsidies in g...
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