Jakarta, 15 September 2026 — A new study by the Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS) finds that Sulawesi has exceeded its environmental carrying and assimilative capacity. Based on a multidimensional assessment of air, water, land, social conditions, and policy controls, the island recorded an aggregate score of 4.5 out of 5, placing it in the “beyond limits” category.
The report, Beyond Limits: The Failure of Environmental Carrying and Assimilative Capacity (D3TLH) to Control the Expansion of Extractive Industries in Sulawesi, examines the growth of mining, palm oil plantations, smelters, captive coal-fired power plants, and industrial estates between 2014 and 2024.
During this period, the government issued 574 new mining permits, approximately 60 percent of which were granted in the final two years of the study. Even in ecologically critical areas, 277 new permits covering 440,998 hectares were issued. On average, one hectare of land in Sulawesi was transferred to mining concession holders every six minutes.
Mining and palm oil plantations accounted for approximately 82.2 percent of deforestation in Sulawesi between 2014 and 2023. The scale of deforestation associated with these industries was around 18 times greater than that linked to shifting cultivation, challenging narratives that place primary responsibility for forest loss on local communities.
The ecological burden has intensified alongside the rapid expansion of nickel processing. Around 78 percent of Sulawesi’s nickel smelters are concentrated in Central and Southeast Sulawesi. These two provinces also host 93.9 percent of the island’s 9,825 megawatts of captive coal-fired power capacity. The electricity primarily serves industrial estates rather than the public grid, while the resulting pollution and health risks are borne by surrounding communities.
Nickel operations in Central and Southeast Sulawesi are estimated to generate 32.8 million tonnes of hazardous waste annually. Meanwhile, 269 recorded locations of seven endemic species are situated within or near mining concessions and nickel industrial estates.
Communities in industrial centres experience an average of 5,353 respiratory infection and pneumonia cases annually, nearly double the 2,634 cases recorded in non-industrial areas. Industrial districts also record three times as many dengue cases as non-extractive districts. However, healthcare capacity remains weaker, with industrial centres averaging only 85 community health centres and 59 hospitals, compared with 90 health centres and 72 hospitals in non-industrial areas.
Extractive expansion has also intensified land conflicts. CELIOS documented 95 agrarian conflicts affecting 90,582 people and 59 communities. Fifty-one cases remain unresolved, while repression occurred in 46 conflicts, resulting in 93 arrests, four injuries, and one death.
CELIOS estimates that cumulative ecological losses caused by extractive-industry expansion have exceeded IDR 100 trillion. These losses include the destruction of primary forests, coastal ecosystems and coral reefs, as well as the loss of clean water sources due to sedimentation.
The findings reveal a profound imbalance in the distribution of benefits and burdens. Economic gains are concentrated among corporations and extractive-industry supply chains, while surrounding communities bear the consequences through illness, environmental degradation, loss of livelihoods, conflict, and recovery costs.
CELIOS calls for a comprehensive reform of Indonesia’s D3TLH regulations. A “beyond limits” designation must carry binding legal consequences, including a moratorium on new permits, mandatory reviews of existing concessions, ecological restoration obligations, and full public access to environmental and licensing data. Without such reform, D3TLH will remain an administrative formality while extractive expansion continues to outpace the state’s ability to protect communities and the environment.
