Publications
Evidence with a purpose.
Reports, policy briefs, press releases, books, and public commentary in one searchable archive.
Free Nutritious Meals: economic impacts and the consequences of the national budget deficit
The Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) program is a priority of the Prabowo-Gibran administration, with a target of reaching 82 million beneficiaries, including schoolchildren, toddlers, and pregnant women. However, CELIOS warns that allocating IDR 71 trillion from the education budget to MBG could strain state finances and narrow fiscal space for other priority programs. Nailul Huda, CELIOS Director of Economics, stressed, “If the MBG program uses mandatory education spending, the quality of national education n
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Palm oil land moratorium: a positive impulse for Indonesia's economy
Indonesia, as the world’s largest palm oil producer with plantations spanning 16.8 million hectares, faces a dilemma between industrial expansion and environmental sustainability. Although palm oil exports contributed USD 37.76 billion in 2022 and USD 29.54 billion in 2023, the biodiesel development plan from B40 to B50 initiated by President Prabowo Subianto’s administration requires further palm oil land expansion, raising concerns about deforestation and the loss of food-producing land. The Palm Oil Moratorium under Presidential Instruction No. 8 of
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China-Indonesia survey 2024: insights into Indonesian public perceptions of China
CELIOS released the “China-Indonesia Survey 2024” to understand public perceptions of relations between Indonesia and China. Zulfikar Rakhmat, Director of CELIOS’s China-Indonesia Desk, emphasized that “Indonesia’s efforts to strengthen its role on the global stage are commendable, but it is equally important to manage international partnerships carefully, particularly in addressing the risks of excessive dependence and potential political influence.” The survey found that 58% of respondents want the government to increase
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Energy transition and deforestation: how regulations facilitate the escalation of agrarian conflicts
The Indonesian government continues to promote biomass development as an alternative to fossil fuels, including through Energy Plantation Forests (HTE), which are planned to be included in PLN’s Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL) and the Draft Law on New and Renewable Energy (RUU EBET). Bhima Yudhistira, Executive Director of CELIOS, noted that “the significant demand for wood pellets for co-firing at coal-fired power plants (PLTU) is not only for domestic use but also for export, including to Japan. The largest buyers of Indonesian wood pellets are Japan and South Korea, at 10 million tons and 64 million tons respectively.”
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Scenario of the 2025 minimum wage increase and its impact on the national economy
Issues surrounding the formulation of the Minimum Wage following the Constitutional Court’s ruling on the Job Creation Law have sparked speculation about the size of the 2025 wage increase. Bhima Yudhistira, Executive Director of CELIOS, emphasized, “In the past 10 years, the government has never used the minimum wage as a counter-cyclical policy. Yet a better minimum wage would boost household consumption and benefit businesses as well as overall economic growth.” CELIOS simulations show that an increase in the minimum wage
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Redefining China’s “debt-trap”: an Indonesian perspective
Over the past 10 years, Indonesia-China relations have reached their peak since the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013. Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat, Director of the China-Indonesia Desk at CELIOS, emphasized that the debt-trap issue is not only about finances. “When a country feels it cannot make independent policy decisions for fear of upsetting its cooperation partner, that too can be interpreted as the country having fallen into a debt trap. In the context of Indonesia and China, for example, we
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The dilemma of phasing out coal-fired power plants: losses or gains for the country?
JAKARTA, 5 November 2024 – The government’s energy transition commitment has passed from Indonesia’s 7th President, Joko Widodo (Jokowi), to President Prabowo Subianto, with the hope that Indonesia will remain consistent in pursuing the energy transition, particularly by accelerating the retirement of coal-fired power plants (PLTUs). As part of Indonesia’s energy transition, the government needs to recognize the benefits of early PLTU retirement as a step toward achieving net-zero emissions by 2060 or sooner. Pe
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Press release: CELIOS' response to Indonesia's BRICS membership in 2024
Jakarta, October 26, 2024 — Less than a week after the inauguration of the president and the new cabinet, Indonesia’s government has drawn public attention, both at home and abroad, following Foreign Minister Sugiono’s statement at the BRICS Plus Summit in Kazan on October 24, 2024. Sugiono submitted a letter expressing interest in joining the alliance of five major countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS). Indonesia has now officially applied for membership
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CELIOS' response to the Prabowo-Gibran 'oversized cabinet' plan: fiscal burden, lack of substance in the cabinet
President-elect Prabowo Subianto has summoned candidates for minister, deputy minister, and agency head positions to fill strategic posts, but CELIOS analysis shows that most candidates are politicians (55.6%) and supporters of Prabowo-Gibran (72%). Only 15.7% are technocratic professionals, while women account for just 9.3%. CELIOS researcher Galau D. Muhammad emphasized, “Appointing more deputy ministers means higher state spending. All these burdens…”
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CELIOS book: it’s time for restorative economics
This book originated from a document prepared to spark public discourse. Written by a group of independent authors specializing in economic, social, and environmental issues, the document took shape at a civil society organization meeting in Yogyakarta in August 2023. Its goal was clear: to involve more actors—including politicians, legislators, and regional leaders—in determining a development path that is not simply business-as-usual, given the existential challenges humanity faces today.
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CELIOS’ recommendations for Indonesia's Second Nationally Determined Contributions (SNDC): looking ahead to tackling the climate crisis
The climate crisis has had serious impacts on economic sovereignty, public safety, and the environment. Indonesia is expected to take concrete steps in mitigation and adaptation, using the formulation of its SNDC (Second Nationally Determined Contributions) as a turning point to change course, while acknowledging past delays in responding and moving forward with greater focus. The government should postpone permits for new coal-fired power plants, particularly in industrial zones, so that the target...
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Who benefits from ocean sand exports? Economic and environmental impacts of ocean sand regulations
Jakarta, October 2, 2024— The government’s decision to relax sea sand exports through Government Regulation No. 26/2023 and Ministerial Decree No. 16/2024 has drawn sharp criticism from academics, environmental activists, and coastal communities. The policy is considered harmful to marine ecosystems, coral reefs, and fishers’ livelihoods. CELIOS Digital Economy Director Nailul Huda stated, “Our simulation found a negative impact on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of IDR 1.22 trillion, and people’s incomes will decline by as much as
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