Persoalan formulasi Upah Minimum pasca putusan MK terkait UU Cipta Kerja menimbulkan spekulasi mengenai besaran kenaikan upah di 2025. Bhima Yudhistira, Direktur Eksekutif CELIOS, menekankan, “Pemerintah dalam 10 tahun terakhir belum pernah menggunakan upah minimum sebagai kebijakan counter-cylical. Padahal upah minimum yang lebih baik akan mendorong konsumsi rumah tangga dan menguntungkan pelaku usaha serta pertumbuhan ekonomi secara agregat.” Simulasi CELIOS menunjukkan, kenaikan upah minimum 10% dapat menambah konsumsi rumah tangga sebesar Rp67,23 triliun, memberikan dampak positif bagi UMKM.
Dampak makro ekonomi dari kenaikan upah juga signifikan. Nailul Huda, Direktur Ekonomi Digital CELIOS, menyatakan, “Selisih dampak skenario kenaikan upah lumayan besar. Begitu juga dengan dampak ke serapan tenaga kerja jika upah minimum naik 10% hingga 1,19 juta orang di 2025, sementara formula PP 51/2023 hanya bisa dorong 188 ribu kesempatan kerja baru.” Peningkatan ini juga akan mendorong PDB hingga Rp122,2 triliun dan menurunkan angka kemiskinan ke 8,94%, dibandingkan formula lama yang hampir tidak berdampak.
Media Wahyudi Askar, Direktur Kebijakan Publik CELIOS, menekankan pentingnya lembaga independen dalam penentuan upah. “Kami menyarankan pemerintah segera membentuk lembaga independen yang dimonitor oleh serikat pekerja dan pengusaha, bukan merujuk pada data BPS.” Kenaikan upah minimum pada 2025 akan menentukan arah pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia, baik mendorong konsumsi rumah tangga dan investasi, maupun mengurangi risiko PHK.
The formulation of the Minimum Wage following the Constitutional Court’s ruling on the Job Creation Law has sparked speculation about whether the new wage regulation for 2025 will be higher or lower than Government Regulation 51/2023. Bhima Yudhistira, Executive Director of CELIOS, emphasized, “In the past 10 years, the government has never used the minimum wage as a counter-cyclical policy. Yet a better minimum wage would boost household consumption and benefit businesses as well as overall economic growth.” CELIOS simulations show that a 10% increase in the minimum wage could raise household consumption by IDR 67.23 trillion, positively impacting MSMEs.
The macroeconomic effects of a higher minimum wage are also significant. Nailul Huda, CELIOS’ Director of Digital Economics, stated, “The difference in impacts between scenarios is considerable. Employment would increase by 1.19 million jobs in 2025 if the minimum wage rises by 10%, compared to only 188,000 under the Government Regulation 51/2023 formula.” This increase would also raise GDP by IDR 122.2 trillion and reduce the poverty rate to 8.94%, compared with minimal effects under the old formula.
Media Wahyudi Askar, CELIOS’ Director of Public Policy, stressed the need for an independent body to determine wages: “We recommend the government immediately establish an independent institution monitored by labor unions and employers, rather than relying solely on Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) data.” The minimum wage increase in 2025 will be pivotal in shaping Indonesia’s economic trajectory—boosting household consumption and investment while reducing the risk of layoffs.
