Program Makan Bergizi Gratis (MBG) menjadi prioritas pemerintahan Prabowo-Gibran dengan target menjangkau 82 juta penerima, termasuk anak sekolah, balita, dan ibu hamil. Namun, CELIOS memperingatkan bahwa alokasi anggaran pendidikan sebesar Rp71 triliun untuk MBG bisa membebani keuangan negara dan mempersempit ruang fiskal untuk program prioritas lain. Nailul Huda, Direktur Ekonomi CELIOS, menekankan, “Jika program MBG menggunakan mandatory spending pendidikan dikhawatirkan kualitas pendidikan nasional akan terganggu dan berpotensi mengurangi kesempatan kerja hingga 723 ribu posisi pada sektor pendidikan, termasuk guru dan dosen.”
Dampak ekonomi MBG juga diproyeksikan terbatas. Huda menyebutkan, penggunaan dana pendidikan hanya memberi tambahan PDB Rp7,21 triliun, sementara defisit APBN bisa membengkak. Bhima Yudhistira menegaskan, “Jika program MBG ini terus berjalan hingga mencapai target 100% pada tahun 2029, defisit APBN diperkirakan akan mencapai 3,34% dari PDB. Bahkan dengan asumsi pertumbuhan ekonomi 7%, defisit tetap diprediksi melampaui ketentuan konstitusi.” Dyah Ayu menambahkan, “Pilihannya hanya naikan rasio pajak atau tambah utang untuk danai MBG,” mengingat proyeksi rasio pajak Indonesia masih rendah dibanding target jangka panjang.
Sebagai solusi, CELIOS mendorong strategi pendanaan kreatif. Huda menyarankan program diarahkan kepada keluarga yang membutuhkan melalui skema PKH, sedangkan Bhima menekankan, “Jangan naikan tarif PPN jadi 12% untuk biayai program prioritas. Banyak cara yang bisa dilakukan, salah satunya pajak kekayaan (wealth tax) yang bisa berkontribusi Rp81,6 triliun dalam sekali penerapan. Jangan korbankan masyarakat kelas menengah yang hidupnya sudah terhimpit untuk biayai MBG.”
The Free Nutritious Meal (MBG) program is a flagship initiative of the Prabowo-Gibran administration, aiming to reach 82 million beneficiaries, including schoolchildren, toddlers, and pregnant women. However, CELIOS warns that allocating IDR 71 trillion from the education budget for MBG could strain state finances and limit fiscal space for other priority programs. Nailul Huda, CELIOS Director of Economics, emphasized, “If the MBG program uses mandatory education spending, the quality of national education is at risk and it could reduce employment opportunities by up to 723 thousand positions in the education sector, including teachers and lecturers.”
The economic impact of MBG is also projected to be limited. Huda noted that using the education budget would only add IDR 7.21 trillion to GDP, while the state deficit could expand significantly. Bhima Yudhistira stressed, “If this MBG program continues until it reaches 100% coverage by 2029, the state budget deficit is projected to reach 3.34% of GDP, even with an optimistic 7% economic growth assumption, the deficit would still exceed constitutional limits.” Dyah Ayu added, “The only options are to raise the tax ratio or increase debt to fund MBG,” given that Indonesia’s projected tax ratio remains far below long-term targets.
As a solution, CELIOS advocates for more creative funding strategies. Huda recommends targeting support to families in need through the Family Hope Program (PKH), while Bhima emphasized, “Do not raise the VAT to 12% to fund priority programs. There are many alternatives, such as a wealth tax, which could contribute IDR 81.6 trillion in a single implementation. The government should not burden middle-class citizens, who are already struggling, to finance MBG.”
Narahubung / Contact Person : Nailul Huda (0857-4223-2974)
