CELIOS menerbitkan laporan “Jokowi’s Fiscal Legacy: Notes for Future Government” pada Februari 2023 untuk mengevaluasi kondisi fiskal Indonesia selama dua periode kepemimpinan Presiden Joko Widodo dan implikasi reformasi fiskal bagi ekonomi masa depan. Laporan ini menyoroti beberapa masalah utama: rasio pajak menurun sejak 2015, insentif pajak seperti Tax Holiday berpotensi mengurangi pendapatan negara, utang luar negeri naik 44% dari 2014-2021, dan alokasi anggaran lebih banyak untuk membayar utang dibandingkan investasi produktif. Megaproyek infrastruktur berbasis BUMN juga dinilai berpotensi membebani APBN ke depan.
Laporan menekankan pentingnya kebijakan keadilan fiskal, termasuk sistem pajak progresif untuk meningkatkan pendapatan publik dan distribusinya yang adil guna menangani ketimpangan dan kemiskinan.
Rekomendasi utama mencakup desain ulang postur APBN untuk memperkuat kualitas belanja negara—mengurangi pengeluaran barang dan personel, memperkuat belanja kesehatan dan perlindungan sosial—serta langkah nyata untuk menyeimbangkan utang dan memperkuat keseimbangan primer.
CELIOS published the report “Jokowi’s Fiscal Legacy: Notes for Future Government” in February 2023 to assess Indonesia’s fiscal condition over President Joko Widodo’s two terms and the implications of fiscal reforms for the country’s future economy. The report highlights key issues: tax ratios have declined since 2015, tax incentives such as Tax Holidays risk reducing state revenue, external debt rose 44% from 2014-2021, and budget allocations have prioritized debt repayment over productive investment. State-owned enterprise–based infrastructure megaprojects are also seen as potentially straining the state budget in the future.
The report emphasizes the importance of fiscal justice policies, including a progressive tax system to generate adequate public revenue and distribute it fairly to address inequality and poverty.
Key recommendations include redesigning the state budget to improve spending quality—reducing goods and personnel expenditures while strengthening health and social protection spending—and taking concrete steps to achieve debt sustainability and strengthen the primary balance.
