Transformasi digital yang pesat telah mengubah lanskap ekonomi Indonesia, menciptakan model bisnis baru, peluang kerja, serta ruang inovasi. Studi CELIOS “Indonesia Digital Economy Outlook 2025” memberikan proyeksi perkembangan ekonomi digital sekaligus menyoroti tantangan utama. Nailul Huda, Direktur Ekonomi CELIOS, menyatakan, “Sayangnya, pada tahun 2025, sektor perdagangan daring diprediksi hanya meningkat 0,5% menjadi Rp471 triliun akibat menurunnya daya beli masyarakat dan potensi kenaikan PPN.” Sektor transportasi daring dan online travel diproyeksikan tetap tumbuh, masing-masing mencapai Rp12,66 triliun dan Rp12,37 triliun, membuka lapangan kerja baru dan menunjukkan optimisme terhadap pasar digital Indonesia.
Sektor pembayaran digital dan pinjaman daring juga menunjukkan pertumbuhan signifikan, didorong adopsi fintech dan dukungan regulasi. Nailul Huda memperkirakan transaksi pembayaran digital akan mencapai Rp2.908,59 triliun pada 2025, naik 16,73% dari 2024, sementara pinjaman daring diperkirakan mencapai Rp365,70 triliun. Rani Septya, Peneliti Ekonomi Digital CELIOS, menekankan, “Pertumbuhan ini mencerminkan meningkatnya kepercayaan terhadap layanan pinjaman digital, namun risiko kredit dan ketergantungan pada teknologi perlu diatasi agar sektor tetap stabil.”
Meski demikian, ekonomi digital Indonesia menghadapi tantangan struktural serius. Dyah Ayu menyoroti fenomena “tech winter” akibat menurunnya investasi dan kompetisi regional, sementara Rani Septya mencatat disparitas akses dan kualitas SDM: “Hingga Juli 2024, penyaluran pinjaman di luar Pulau Jawa baru mencapai Rp188,45 triliun, jauh tertinggal dibandingkan Pulau Jawa yang mencapai Rp737,31 triliun, akibat infrastruktur digital yang belum merata, literasi finansial rendah, dan terbatasnya edukasi fintech.” Nailul Huda menambahkan, keamanan siber masih menjadi masalah besar; Indonesia berada di peringkat 48 dalam National Cyber Security Index, menandakan perlunya peningkatan infrastruktur dan pengawasan untuk melindungi data dan transaksi digital.
The rapid digital transformation has significantly reshaped Indonesia’s economy, creating new business models, job opportunities, and avenues for innovation. The CELIOS study “Indonesia Digital Economy Outlook 2025” provides projections for the country’s digital economy while highlighting key challenges. Nailul Huda, Director of Digital Economics at CELIOS, notes, “Unfortunately, in 2025, the e-commerce sector is projected to increase only 0.5% to IDR 471 trillion due to declining purchasing power and potential VAT hikes.” Meanwhile, sectors like online transport and online travel are expected to grow steadily, with projections of IDR 12.66 trillion and IDR 12.37 trillion respectively, supporting new employment opportunities and reflecting optimism for Indonesia’s digital market.
Digital payments and online lending continue to show strong growth, driven by fintech adoption and regulatory support. Nailul Huda projects digital payment transactions to reach IDR 2,908.59 trillion in 2025, a 16.73% increase from 2024, while online lending could reach IDR 365.70 trillion. Rani Septya, CELIOS Digital Economy Researcher, explains, “This growth reflects increasing trust in digital lending services, but challenges like credit risk and technological dependency need to be addressed to ensure sector stability.”
Despite these advances, the digital economy faces significant structural challenges. Dyah Ayu highlights a “tech winter” with declining investments and regional competition, while Rani Septya points out disparities in access and human capital: “As of July 2024, lending outside Java reached only IDR 188.45 trillion, far behind Java’s IDR 737.31 trillion, due to uneven digital infrastructure, low financial literacy, and limited access to fintech education.” Nailul Huda adds that cybersecurity risks remain a major concern, noting Indonesia ranks 48th globally in the National Cyber Security Index, underlining the need for more comprehensive safeguards and infrastructure improvements.
