China’s presence in Indonesia is no longer confined to the national capital it is deepening and spreading across the archipelago. The 2025 China–Indonesia Provincial Index, the second edition of this annual study, provides a systematic mapping of China’s footholds in Indonesia’s provinces from 1 August 2024 to 1 August 2025. Building on last year’s inaugural research, the findings show that China’s presence has not only persisted but expanded across more provinces, sectors, and levels of governance.
The 2025 results highlight a growing provincialization of China’s footprint, illustrating how Beijing’s engagement is moving beyond Jakarta into regional economies, societies, and institutions. This shift underscores a more entrenched and layered geography of influence—strong in economic and social heartlands, but faint or absent at the periphery. Western and central provinces, particularly North Sumatra, Bali, West Java, Central Java, East Java, and Sulawesi’s core provinces, continue to rank among the highest in the index, reflecting robust economic and societal linkages. In contrast, Kalimantan, Maluku, and Papua register significantly lower or fragmented scores, with several Papuan provinces showing negligible measurable Chinese presence.
The provincial breakdown paints a more granular picture of this uneven landscape. North Sumatra (29.5%) leads the national rankings, followed closely by Bali (28.4%)—a notable second-strongest foothold driven by economic and societal connections. Java’s provinces show consistently strong footholds, with West Java (22.7%), Central Java (21.6%), and East Java (20.5%) standing out. Even Jakarta, at 18.2%, remains an important node. Sulawesi also features prominently, with South Sulawesi and Central Sulawesi both scoring above 18 percent. Meanwhile, Kalimantan, Maluku, and Papua provinces lag far behind, with most Papuan provinces at the bottom of the index.
To address this uneven landscape, CELIOS developed the 2025 China–Indonesia Provincial Index to provide a clear, data-driven understanding of China’s subnational footprint. This second edition offers a unique snapshot of how Chinese engagement is distributed across Indonesia’s provinces—where it is strongest, where it is weak, and why these patterns matter. The insights from this report can help policymakers, businesses, and civil society craft more strategic, balanced, and informed approaches to China’s growing presence. By grounding future engagement in evidence rather than assumptions, Indonesia can better navigate opportunities and challenges at both the national and provincial levels.
