Kenaikan tarif Pajak Pertambahan Nilai (PPN) menjadi 12% mulai 1 Januari 2025 berpotensi memberikan dampak signifikan bagi masyarakat. Meski diatur dalam UU Nomor 7 Tahun 2021 tentang Harmonisasi Peraturan Perpajakan (HPP), pemerintah sebenarnya memiliki fleksibilitas untuk menetapkan tarif PPN antara 5–15%. Kebijakan ini datang di tengah kondisi ekonomi rumah tangga yang melemah, dengan pertumbuhan konsumsi hanya 4,91% (y-o-y) pada Q3 2024 dan -0,48% (q-to-q), deflasi selama lima bulan berturut-turut (Mei-September 2024), serta omzet UMKM anjlok hingga 60%, menurut laporan Bank BRI. Sementara itu, potensi penerimaan dari pajak karbon, tambang ilegal, dan pengemplangan pajak sawit sebesar hingga Rp300 triliun belum dioptimalkan.
Dengan tarif 12%, Indonesia kini memiliki PPN tertinggi di ASEAN bersama Filipina, melampaui Malaysia (8%) dan Singapura (9%). Kebijakan ini berisiko menurunkan daya beli masyarakat, khususnya Gen Z dan kelompok menengah ke bawah, yang akan menghadapi beban konsumsi lebih tinggi, penurunan pendapatan, peningkatan utang, dan ketergantungan pada sektor informal seperti thrifting dan jastip. CELIOS merekomendasikan kebijakan fiskal yang lebih pro-rakyat untuk mendukung pemulihan ekonomi, daripada menambah tekanan bagi masyarakat.
The increase of Indonesia’s Value Added Tax (VAT) to 12% starting January 1, 2025 will have a significant impact on the public. Although mandated under Law No. 7 of 2021 on Tax Regulation Harmonization, the government has flexibility to set VAT rates between 5-15%. The timing is particularly challenging as household consumption growth slowed to 4.91% year-on-year in Q3 2024, turned -0.48% quarter-to-quarter, deflation occurred for five consecutive months (May-September 2024), and SME revenues fell by up to 60%, according to Bank BRI reports. Meanwhile, potential revenue from carbon taxes, illegal mining, and unpaid palm oil taxes—up to IDR 300 trillion—has yet to be optimized.
With the 12% VAT, Indonesia now shares the highest VAT rate in ASEAN with the Philippines, exceeding Malaysia (8%) and Singapore (9%). This policy risks reducing purchasing power, especially for Gen Z and lower-middle-income groups, who will face higher consumption burdens, lower disposable income, rising debt, and greater dependence on informal sectors such as thrifting and personal shopping services. CELIOS recommends more people-focused fiscal policies that support economic recovery rather than adding pressure to households.
